The deadline for the federal government to avoid a potential government shutdown is Sept 30.
If that sounds familiar, it might be because you heard the same story on our show this time last year.
Ultimately, no government shutdown occurred in 2023, though 2024 is still up in the air.
Sean Theriault, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Austin, said at this point the shutdown is unlikely.
“The sticking point is that we have an election here in less than 50 days. And so that makes it more complicated,” Theriault said. “And you have the Republican nominee who wants them to shut it down unless they pass some election integrity bills that codify what’s already an existing law. And so you have the Republican nominee who’s putting lots of pressure on people to shut it down.”
Despite pressure from former President Donald Trump, several Republican lawmakers in the Republican-controlled house shot down the election integrity bill.
“It is a game of chicken, except that the Republicans kind of defeated their whole strategy themselves this week,” Theriault said. “The speaker put forth a plan to try to keep funding the government as well as this election integrity bill. But enough Republicans voted ‘no’ on it that it didn’t even pass.
And so now you’re just stuck with the only game in town, which is the plan coming out of the Senate with Chuck Schumer and we’re not expecting too much drama from this point going forward.”
When it comes to the Democrats, Theriault said they probably don’t feel like they have to fold on this issue.
“The Democrats want to call the Republicans bluff on this, right? The Democrats don’t think this is necessary at all,” Theriault said. “And remember that the Republicans only control the House of Representatives. There’s still Joe Biden in the White House. And there’s a Democratic majority still in the Senate. And so for the Democrats to capitulate on this, they’re negotiating from a position of strength. So they don’t need to do that.”
Theriault said the most likely outcome is a continuing resolution that keeps the government funding at current levels for three months, until the election is over and lawmakers can approach the budget with more information.
“I think they’ll push until after the election,” he said. “I think everyone will then know what the game in town is going to be heading into the next two years. And so then they’ll be able to figure out a longer term strategy come December.”
If for some reason the government does shut down for any length of time in October, Theriault said it will look similar to other recent shutdowns. Things like national parks and museums in Washington, D.C., will close, but essential functions like TSA and the people responsible for sending out Social Security checks will remain at work.
Theriault said whether this situation plays into further cynicism of our democratic process will depend on how it plays out.
“If there really is no drama and they do get to continue resolution in December, then I think that most people just carry on with their daily lives and they don’t think too much about this,” he said. “If in fact, we did go into a government shutdown, even if people don’t feel it personally, it just shows another way that Congress is incompetent. And so it depends what exactly happens.
But I think what we could see is the Senate and the House acting and getting us a continuing resolution of the summer and that same coalition – you know, majority of Democrats, plus enough Republicans – to get the government functioning. We could just see another another episode of that playing out.”
