Later this year, Texas’ weather will be affected by El Niño — a global weather phenomenon caused by an accumulation of warm water and winds in the Pacific.
El Niño generally means more moisture for Texas, and some meteorologists have predicted that the 2026 El Niño could be particularly intense. So could this temporary meteorological shift break parts of the state out of a longstanding drought?
Joel Lisonbee, the southern plains regional drought information coordinator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has been studying this possibility. He spoke to the Texas Standard about El Niño’s potential impact on the state. Listen to the interview in the player above or read the transcript below.
This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity:
Texas Standard: I want to understand what the event means for everyday folks. Does it mean a lot more rain? Does it mean it’s going to be a lot warmer?
What does it mean as a practical matter?
Joel Lisonbee: Every El Niño manifests itself a little bit differently, but when we look on average at all of the El Niño events we’ve seen, we usually see a cooler and wetter winter across Texas. That usually starts toward the middle part or the late part of fall, and it usually continues into early spring.
So we’re looking at this coming winter and into early next year, we are expecting cooler and wetter conditions. But that’s the average and not every El Niño has behaved that way and it’s not a guarantee.
When we say “wetter,” we mean rain? Or are we talking about, with it also being colder, snow and frozen precipitation?
Sure, that’s a great question. It’s usually a mix of both. We’re not expecting any more or less snow compared to rain. We are just expecting overall an increase in precipitation.
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One of the reasons that I’m really curious about what sort of precipitation this El Niño event might bring, as you’re well aware, Texas has been in drought conditions for quite a while and a large portion of the state is affected. And I know that in some places which are, well, desperate for water, they’ve been hanging a lot of hopes on some of this precipitation alleviating those drought conditions.
Is it possible that this El Niño event will significantly change that?
Yeah, you’re right. If I were to look at a few areas of Texas, we’re looking at almost six years of drought. Other parts of Texas maybe not quite as long, but everywhere in Texas has been impacted by drought, at least over the last year at some point or another.
A few good storms doesn’t mean we’re going to see the drought disappear immediately. We still need some time to refill reservoirs. We’re going need some for the stream flow and rivers to rise up. And we’re gonna need some some time for parts of the landscape, especially out west, to recover from such a long dry period.
Also, not all of Texas is going to be getting this rain at the same time. Our longer-range forecasts are still keeping some fairly dry conditions in the west part of the state.
If you’re dependent on surface water, it’s going to take more than just a few good storms or a few months of rain to refill your reservoirs. And in some parts of the state, it’s gonna take even more than one really good winter to refill some reservoirs because the water is so low right now.
But we still have a hot, dry summer to get through ahead of us before the typical El Niño impacts start.
Looking at past years, at the summer before an El Niño begins — or even the summers when an El Niño has started early — it’s not very clear. There’s a pretty big mix of conditions. Some summers have been wet, some summers have dry.
The only place where we see a fairly consistent pattern is along the Gulf Coast, where we know usually, but not always, an El Niño pattern means fewer tropical storms forming in the Gulf. But that hasn’t always been a guarantee, so it’s a little bit messy.
And if you’re looking for your drought to improve, remember we still have a hot, dry summer ahead of us. But long range, yes, this El Niño should make some big improvements to our long-term drought in the state.
Do I understand you correctly, though? You were talking about the coastal region here in Texas, and of course, quite often there’s a concern come around June, July — concern about an increase in the number of an intensity of hurricane events.
Does the development of El Niño, of this size, suggest that perhaps we don’t need to be as concerned about the development of a number of hurricane events in the Gulf?
That’s a great question. On a very general scale, we know that El Niño usually means fewer tropical storms and hurricanes.
The official seasonal outlook from the National Hurricane Center is coming out on Thursday of this week. So I don’t have those numbers in front of me. I don’t know how many storms they’re going to be predicting.
But regardless of whether you have fewer than normal, normal or above normal number of storms, it really only takes one to ruin your summer.
Absolutely, absolutely.
And “fewer” doesn’t mean “none.”
