Talarico polling stronger with Texas’ Black voters than expected, but enthusiasm questions remain

It was standing room only at the Texas Democratic Convention when James Talarico, the party’s nominee for U.S. Senate, was set to address the party’s Black Caucus in Corpus Christi.

But his introduction, given by Texas Coalition of Black Democrats chair Frederick Nickens, reflected some of the crowd’s lingering hesitation around the 37-year-old candidate.

“We’re going to be respectful,” said Nickens. “Y’all might have some feelings about it, right?”

Still, a warm round of applause filled the room as Talarico took the stage.

This scene at last month’s convention reflected a narrative that has followed Talarico ever since he won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate over Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett: that he could struggle to win votes from Black voters in Texas who overwhelmingly supported Crockett in the primaries.

But recent polling from The Texas Politics Project suggests Talarico may actually be in a stronger position with Black voters than public perception would suggest.

The poll found 67% of Black voters surveyed said they support Talarico — of note considering what those numbers looked like for previous Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate at similar points in their campaigns. In 2024, the group’s polling around this time showed Colin Allred drawing 47% of the state’s Black voters, while Beto O’Rourke had 49% in 2018.

“The main advantage Talarico has with Black voters and with Democratic voters in general is he’s just significantly more well known at this point in the race,” said Joshua Blank, research director for The Texas Politics Project and author of the poll.

In a Republican-dominated state like Texas, Blank said Democratic candidates often spend much of their campaigns simply introducing themselves to voters. But Blank said Talarico entered the race with a higher profile than recent Democratic Senate nominees (though not as high-profile as Crockett, who’s become a national figure while in Congress).

But “support in a poll” and “voter enthusiasm” are not the same thing, Blank stressed.

That distinction was also evident in conversations The Texas Newsroom had with Texas Democratic Convention attendees after Talarico’s address to the Black Caucus.

“When history has turned the page, we have to go with the next page,” said Margaret Thompson on her plans to vote for Talarico. “It was very hard, but I did turn the page. So, in order to win, we have to go with whoever the people’s choice has chosen.”

Monica Thompson said she’ll likely support Talarico in November but remains frustrated with how this year’s Democratic primary unfolded.

“We do want him to beat Ken Paxton, but I don’t like the way he got it,” said Thompson. “I just don’t think Jasmine Crockett got a fair chance because of her skin color.”

In a general election, these somewhat-reluctant voters could prove to be a deciding factor, according to Texas Southern University political scientist Michael Adams.

“If we have an election that’s a statistical dead heat, those voters who may opt to stay at home would be very important,” said Adams. “Jasmine Crockett was able to get them off of their sofas and out to the polls.”

Talarico acknowledged this during his remarks to the Black Caucus last month.

“There is no way to win this race without Black Texans — no way at all,” he said. “I, as your Democratic nominee, am committed to earning the votes of every Black Texan.”

In the end, though, it may simply come down to party loyalty. Blank said history suggests Democratic support among Black voters tends to consolidate as Election Day approaches.

“In all of that polling that we’ve looked at, over many election cycles, the share of Black voters who support the Democratic candidate tends to go up the closer we get to Election Day,” he said.

A similar dynamic can play out among Republicans, too — both in general and specifically in Texas’ U.S. Senate race.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP nominee for Senate, also faced criticism from some Republicans who backed incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn during the party’s primary and runoff. But Gary Cary, president of the Collin County Conservative Republicans, said he thinks many of those voters are now unifying behind the nominee.

“A lot of them are very disappointed,” Cary said, but was quick to add that those voters “are quickly coming around to recognizing that now, you know, Ken Paxton is a clear and important choice.”

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