Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have cut former President Donald Trump’s lead in Texas in half in the first statewide poll since President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race.
Harris is trailing Trump by only five points, according to the poll from the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and the Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University.
Renée Cross, senior executive editor at the Hobby School, joined the Standard with more insights from the poll.
This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity:
Texas Standard: So when was this latest survey conducted? Give us details.
Renée Cross: This was conducted between August 5th and August 16th with 1,365 likely Texas voters, and 878 of these likely voters were actually interviewed by us earlier this summer. So we’ve got a good look at the change among the same likely voters.
Well, does this shift seem to come from any particular demographic or region?
Yeah, we are seeing that Gen Z is overwhelmingly happy with this new change. Compared to Biden, Harris gains 16 points among Gen Z.
Women have turned to Harris. Previously, Trump led among Texas likely women voters. Now, they favor Harris by six points. We also saw a shift of independents for Harris since the earlier summer survey.
What do you attribute to this tightening of the race here in Texas? How reflective do you think it is, compared to what you’re seeing in other states or nationally?
Actually, it’s very similar to what we’re seeing nationally, which in itself is, I think, somewhat of a surprise. There’s no doubt that Texas is a red state, but just this change at the top of the ticket – again, in a very short period of time – we are seeing some momentum for Democrats.
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I understand that you also asked about a closely watched Senate race here in Texas between Ted Cruz and Democrat Colin Allred – any shifts there?
Actually, it is very similar to what we saw earlier this summer. Right now, Senator Cruz is leading, 46.6 points. Allred is at 44.5 points. So Senator Cruz is only leading by two points, which again, is the same as what we’d seen earlier this summer.
That’s not the type of spread you would expect for a long-term incumbent. So this is going to be, I think, the race to watch in Texas.
Of course, here we are on the final day of the Democratic National Convention. And we should once again underscore that this survey was done earlier this summer. So we don’t quite know yet how this convention is going to play out in terms of Texas numbers. But does this hint at the way that this might be received and what that might do here in Texas?
Traditionally, conventions do give a bump to the candidates, and I think that will be especially so this year, just because of all the excitement that is surrounding Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
Any other surprises that stood out to you in this survey?
I would say favorability. We did also ask about favorability of leading candidates and office holders, and by far, Colin Allred, Governor [Greg] Abbott and Lieutenant Governor [Dan] Patrick had the highest net favorability ratings.
However, with Harris, her recent numbers have come up considerably. Back when we did this in June, her favorability was -14. She’s now at-3. This is net favorability overall.
Her favorability rating is 48%+. With Trump, it’s 49%. So again, even in red state Texas, Harris’ numbers are looking pretty good.
