Rapid population growth is changing the voter map in Texas

From KERA News:

On a bright Saturday afternoon, the Kaufman County Democrats are holding their monthly meeting to talk about the upcoming elections in November.

They’re in a space that looks like a modern classroom in Forney, a town about 20 miles east of Dallas. It’s a suburban area that still feels pretty rural.

Right now Kaufman is going through what you might call a boom — it’s the fastest growing county in the country, according to the U.S. Census. Its population increased more than 7% between 2022 and 2023.

“I’ve had people that have called, I guess, in the last two weeks, that want to get involved, and that have called to volunteer, which, in the past, we haven’t always had a lot of people called to volunteer,” said Sarah Whitaker, party chair for the Kaufman County Democrats.

Democrats making gains

It’s been about a month since President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race, and a couple of weeks since Vice President Kamala Harris was officially nominated to the Democratic ticket. Whitaker said the excitement among voters is palpable.

“Since he stepped aside to let Kamala be our now, our presidential candidate, and with Tim [Walz], they have come out of the woodwork. They are so excited,” Whitaker said.

Dane Adams is a college student who’s lived in Kaufman county for about 10 years. He said he’s seen the explosive growth in the county firsthand, and he hopes it’ll translate to more young voters like him turning out to the polls.

“There’s so many students that I’ve gotten to have in kind of my echo chamber that have been apathetic towards this election, but now, since the tides have changed, in a sense, they’re a lot more energized,” Adams said.

Taylor Bracey attended the party’s meeting with her mom and said she’s excited about her first time voting.

“I think now is my opportunity,” she said. “And I really do believe that it’s important for young people to go out and vote right now.”

Like most semi-rural counties in Texas, Kaufman County leans Republican — the last time it went to a Democratic presidential candidate was in 1980.

But — according to the most recent general elections — Democrats have been a growing presence here, driven by the influx of people moving to the state for job opportunities.

“What that’s tended to do is made these places more competitive electorally than they were in the past,” said Joshua Blank, researcher with the Texas Politics Project at The University of Texas at Austin. “As someone who watches Texas election campaigns, the suburbs really is where the most competition is taking place right now.”

That’s why Democrats like Whitaker and Adams are hopeful they can make gains this fall. But in the bigger metro areas, it’s Republicans who are making gains with the fastest growing demographic in the state: Latinos.

The changing Latino vote

Just a 20 minute drive west on the interstate from Forney, dozens of shoppers are at Garibaldi Bazaar in East Dallas to buy all kinds of things — discount clothes, musical instruments, food and even a haircut.

Umberto Gutierrez Vazquez is the owner of La Perla restaurant at one of the corners of the market.

He says he’s voting for former President Donald Trump this fall.

“Trump is good because he knows about the economy, that’s why he has money and [Harris], well, I don’t know,” Vazquez said in Spanish.

Laura Contreras works at a retail clothing booth at the bazaar. She said while she’s not registered to vote, she supports Trump because she believes he can help grow the economy.

“This year under the current president, prices have gone up for living expenses, retail and basically everything,” she said in Spanish, “so I feel that that’s very important.”

Those views track with a recent Texas Trends survey from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University showing that Harris and Trump are nearly tied among Latino voters, with Trump carrying a slight edge. In the U.S. Senate race between Congressman Colin Allred and Sen. Ted Cruz, however, the same survey shows 46% of Latino voters intend to vote for Allred, compared to 40% for Cruz.

Mark Jones is one of the survey’s authors. He says it’s working class immigrants like Vazquez who have lived in the country for years and are registered to vote that are increasingly turning out for Trump.

“Historically, Republicans in Texas have won 35 to 40% of the Latino vote, but that’s been inching up where Republicans are increasingly deadlocked with Democrats for Latinos’ voter support,” Jones said.

Joshua Blank, the researcher at UT Austin, said it’s not likely that Texas will go for Harris this election.

“It’s not impossible to imagine Democrats winning an election here in Texas at some time in the not too distant future,” Blank said.

The circumstances, he said, would have to align just right for the state to turn blue.

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