Ismael Zambada, a longtime leader and co-founder of the powerful Sinaloa drug cartel, was arrested by the Federal Bureau of Investigation late last week in El Paso. Zambada, also known as El Mayo, was taken into custody along with Joaquín Guzmán Lopez, the son of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera. The two men were close associates.
Zambada’s lawyer told CNN that his client was betrayed by Guzmán Lopez. Zambada has pleaded not guilty to charges related to drug trafficking.
Nathan Jones is an associate professor of security studies in the College of Criminal Justice at Sam Houston State University who specializes in Mexican organized crime. He spoke to the Texas Standard about the context and impact of the arrests.
This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity:
Texas Standard: This is one of the biggest cartel busts in recent memory. What exactly transpired? Is it clear?
Nathan Jones: Well, details are still coming out. We have multiple different media reports, but it appears that the son of Chapo Guzman, Joaquín Guzmán Lopez, tricked Mayo Zambada into getting onto a private plane and flying into the United States. Now, there have been different reports. It may have been under the guise of, “hey, we’re going to go check out some properties that we may use for clandestine airstrips in the north of Mexico.”
The Chapitos, the sons of Chapo Guzman, have a long history with Mayo Zambada. In fact, many have said that Mayo Zambada helped prepare them for a long and successful career in the drug business as they were coming up. So this is an intense betrayal.
But it looks like Joaquin, the son of Chapo Guzman, was turning himself in and was surrendering, and to sweeten that deal included Mayo Zambada.
Is it possible that El Chapo’s son may have worked out some kind of arrangement with prosecutors in the U.S. to hand over El Mayo in exchange, perhaps, for some kind of sentence reduction or something along those lines? Because it would be really surprising that Joaquín Guzmán Lopez would, in effect, turn himself in, too.
Well, it’s highly likely that he had negotiated his own surrender, given that there were federal agents on the ground waiting, and some of the reports have indicated that they were on the ground saying they had a VIP coming in or something to that effect.
The fact that he brought in Mayo Zambada with him could have been a surprise. And we’re going to find out all these details eventually, because it’s all going to have to go through the courts. It may have been a surprise, but it does make sense in the sense that it would lead to increased sentence reduction, because when the Chapito goes to sentencing, through his plea deal, he can show, “Hey, look, I brought in this most wanted trafficker.”
Other thing that’s important to remember. He’s going to be living a life, even if he gets out of prison, in witness protection. He can’t take his dirty money with him unless he can negotiate some kind of deal with the government. But that’s going to be unlikely. But a $15 million reward for Zambada would set him up.
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What are the broader implications of these arrests for drug trade and organized crime in Mexico?
So for the drug trade, none. If you’re expecting a reduction in fentanyl into the United States, don’t hold your breath with these strikes.
But in terms of the structure of organized crime, this could really change things in the sense that Mayo Zambada was a stabilizing force throughout the Mexican organized crime system, which is comprised of more than 400 different organized crime groups. But there are mid-tier groups, and some are larger than others. We have to look at them in different levels.
But definitely the two biggest are the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG, the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación – New Generation Jalisco Cartel. Those are the two big bad boys on the block in the sense of different groups are allying with them, but they are the two dominant poles of power. So the Sinaloa Cartel with this is going to be weakened and having internal fragmentation that could lead to violence. And the CJNG may smell weakness and try to attack.
I was wondering if, in fact, that this might have been part of that larger battle between New Generation and the Sinaloa Cartel? Do you think that this is all part of an elaborate dance that we’re not really privy to?
Well, that’s always a possibility. And that would be fascinating if some kind of complex story like that came out. It sounds like this may have been about the forced advantage of the state – that players within the Sinaloa Cartel realized that eventually they would be taken down and the smart play is to cut a deal now.
For example, the first thing that came to my mind was that Mayo Zambada’s children were already in the United States because many of them have already surrendered or been captured and cut their deals. So there is also a thesis out there, reporters like Luis Chaparro have talked about, well, maybe Mayo Zambada is just saying he didn’t want to surrender because that’s culturally required for any remaining family back in Sinaloa, but he did want to turn himself in because he’s dying and he wants to see his son Vicente and his other son, who are in the United States; he wants to be able to say final goodbyes to people.
That is a possibility. We may find out later. And the notion that all these refusals are about the fact that informants aren’t respected in the Mexican drug trade. It could be something like that. We don’t know. Those final details, the final history, will be written years from now.
Why so much secrecy around this? This would seem to be one of the biggest victories for U.S. drug enforcement in quite a while.
Well, it is, and in the sense that it’s happened and the attorney general came out and made a statement to the effect that it did happen, it’s not necessarily secret. But in terms of witness protection and operational security, it doesn’t surprise me, after the assassination attempt on former President Trump, that they’re being very secretive in terms of locations and things like that.
And all of the backstory vis-a-vis these two high profile narcos, given that Chapo’s father escaped from a maximum security prison twice in Mexico, it doesn’t entirely surprise me there would be a lot of operational security.
