From The Texas Newsroom:
Texas Republicans reaffirmed their overwhelming control at the statehouse in Tuesday’s election, but a crop of fresh Republican faces in the Texas House could have big implications for the balance of power in the Legislature, especially when it comes to the state’s ongoing battle over school vouchers.
This year’s Texas House races became an unprecedented battleground among Republicans after lawmakers closed out the 2023 legislative session – and several special sessions – without passing a voucher-like program for Texas’ public schools. The effort, which would have created a program allowing Texas families to cover private and parochial school tuition with public funds, was one of Gov. Greg Abbott’s top legislative priorities last year. But it was derailed by 21 of Abbott’s fellow Republicans in the Texas House.
The Republicans, who were largely from rural areas with few private schools, sided with the chamber’s Democrats and sunk the effort. In response, Abbott went after those dissenting Republicans by backing a series of pro-voucher challengers in the March primaries.
Abbott’s strategy worked: Of the 15 challengers the governor endorsed, 11 successfully ousted incumbent Republicans who’d voted against vouchers. Several more beat GOP incumbents in May’s runoffs.
The new class of Republican lawmakers who will head to Austin in January could also spell trouble for current House Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont). Several Republicans have already said they plan to challenge Phelan for the speaker’s gavel when the Legislature reconvenes in January 2025.
The Texas House and the state’s battle over vouchers
Tuesday’s results likely solidified Gov. Abbott’s confidence that he’ll have a pro-voucher majority come the start of the 2025 legislative session.
The 2024 election was the first time Abbott attacked members of his own party, according to University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus.
“The voucher issue is that change,” Rottinghaus said. “Abbott needs a signature issue. Every governor does. He wants the voucher issue to be his number one signature issue.”
With voucher-friendly Republicans in place, Texas could be on track to join 33 other states that already have some sort of voucher program. Most state programs target low-income or special-needs students, but states like Arizona and Florida have recently adopted universal programs that are available to all students.Gov. Abbott specifically wants Texas to create education savings accounts, or ESAs, which allow parents access to state dollars which can be used to cover education expenses like tuition and homeschooling.
Texas lawmakers’ unsuccessful ESA proposal last year would have provided $10,500 per participating student. However, it’s still unclear exactly what type of voucher-like program state lawmakers would propose in 2025, or how expensive and expansive such a program might be
And despite the ousting of several Republican holdouts against the idea, it remains to be seen how much negotiating pro-voucher lawmakers will need to do if the hope to woo skeptical Texas lawmakers skeptics from both sides of the aisle. “The jury’s still out on what it’s going to look like,” said Jeff Barry, an anti-voucher Republican who won his race Tuesday for House District 29 south of Houston. “There’s a huge push for universal now. That’s just what I’ve heard.”
Barry beat Abbott-backed, pro-voucher candidate Alex Kamkar in the March primary before defeating Democrat Adrienne Bell in the general election. (On the campaign trail, both Barry and Bell said vouchers would divert resources away from public schools). He’ll replace outgoing HD 29 Rep. Ed Thompson who was among the Texas House members who voted against vouchers in 2023 and decided not to run for reelection.
Looking to 2025, “I think it’s going to pass because the governor has gone around making sure it’s going to pass,” Barry said. “The thing that I need to focus on at this point is trying to get the best opportunity and the best deal for my district.”
What ultimately happens next year could largely be driven by Abbott, who called four special legislative sessions last year in an effort to get ESAs passed. With Tuesday’s results, Abbott “got his way by and large,” said Rottinghaus.
“Now, whether he can negotiate inside the legislature to get it done is going to be yet another test, maybe the most important test of his leadership to date,” he added.
What Tuesday’s results mean for Speaker Phelan’s political future
The impact of the Texas legislative elections doesn’t just stop at school vouchers — it may also have determined the fate of Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan.
Phelan was among those who drew the ire of Abbott, who blamed the speaker for not getting ESAs passed in the Texas House last year. The governor, along with Attorney General Ken Paxton and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, endorsed a challenger to Phelan in his House District 21 Republican primary. Phelan was forced into a runoff and just narrowly won.
Since then, Phelan has openly faced challenges to his speakership.
Part of the animus against Phelan from his fellow Republicans (besides his decision to move forward on Paxton’s impeachment) comes from the speaker’s commitment to an old tradition of allowing members of the minority party to chair important legislative committees.
Rep. Tom Oliverson (R-Cypress) is among those challenging Phelan. “Pressure has been mounting for some time to move away from the way we’re currently doing things,” said Oliverson at the Texas Tribune Festival in September. “Pretty much everywhere else you go, whether it’s a red state or a blue state or a big state or a small state… the majority party is in control of all the committees.”
To win the gavel again, he’ll need support from the new crop of Republican Texas House members and nearly all of chamber’s Democrats.
