We’re just a week into fall, but most Texans wouldn’t know it.
Even after the deadly July 4 floods, much of Texas has experienced extremely hot and dry conditions. According to the Austin American-Statesman, the capital city experienced its fifth driest September on record. And with that comes a greater risk for wildfires.
Meteorologist and managing editor for Space City Weather Matt Lanza spoke to Texas Standard about what to expect for Texas’s fall weather forecast. Listen to the interview above or read the transcript below.
The transcript has been edited lightly for clarity:
Texas Standard: First, I want to look back on this summer’s weather. I know hurricane season isn’t over until later in November. You and the folks at Space City Weather believe that for Texans, at least, the window for such storms is probably over. So what factors went into that forecast?
Matt Lanza: Yeah, so when you look back at the history of Texas landfalling hurricanes, after September 25, there is a really, really steep drop in how many storms have hit Texas, historically. So, it just really tends to back off a lot, and it makes sense meteorologically.
Typically, as you get in the fall, you get more cold fronts – or, I guess, cool fronts. They don’t always bring in cooler air, but usually less humidity and things like that. And that tends to usher most tropical activity off toward the east. So, hurricane season kind of continues for the eastern Gulf, particularly Florida, whereas it tends to start to subside in Texas as we get into the end of September, beginning of October.
Not to say that something couldn’t happen. You know, there’s been one or two cases in the past where it has. But just generally speaking, it really does tend to drop off. And frankly, we haven’t seen a whole lot in the Gulf this year. So, it’s been a pretty fortunate season thus far.
Gotcha. So, we’re now officially into fall. But temperatures across much of the state have remained pretty high. As we mentioned, dry as well, compared to recent years. How dry do you think this October is going to be?
Yeah, I mean, it’s definitely going to start off on a dry note. We don’t really have any significant rainfall showing up, at least not in the near term, at least going out to the next 10 days or so.
We may start to see things change in a week or so, particularly for West Texas. We may start to get a little bit more rainfall.
But for East Texas, Central Texas – it’s probably going to stay on the drier side. But I do think that we’re going to see more of this drier weather than not over the next several weeks.
And in terms of wildfire, do you anticipate any active wildfire fall? Where do you think Texas will be on the risk?
Yeah, the risk is definitely there because we’re starting to see more of that low humidity. To this point, fortunately, we haven’t had much wind, and we really need to get the wind to get things going.
So, the risk [that] some localized wildfire starts happening is definitely there, but the risk of significant stuff like we had back in March of last year when we had a number of red flag warnings and things like that across the state, that seems to be on the lower end of the spectrum right now.
We don’t really see a whole lot of signs for that. And really, that’s just because you need a more active weather pattern, and we just don’t have that yet.
With at least the information we have right now, though, in terms of risk, I mean, where in Texas do you think we’ll see the highest?
So right now, the parts of Texas that are actually the driest are in the San Antonio area, back toward Big Bend and parts of West Texas – those areas are in drought right now. They’re in a legitimate drought.
In fact, some areas near just southwest of San Antonio and on the border with Mexico are in exceptional drought, which is the highest level that we have. So, those would be the areas I think you watch closest.
But as you go through fall, and you see this drier air kind of take hold, and you don’t get a whole lot of rain, the rest of the state is going to kind of go in a drier direction. And I think what we’ll see is drought gradually expand over the next few weeks.
So, you know, right now, the risk is more localized. But I think as time goes on, we may see more and more of the state start to have to think about things like burn bans, and we’ll see more talk of wildfire, I think out there, as the month goes on.
And looking ahead, short-term at least, any rain in the forecast for the Lone Star State?
Not really, not over the next several days. As we get toward the middle of the month, we’ll have a little bit of a better chance out in West Texas, the Panhandle, that we talked about. And, you know, those areas, obviously any rain is helpful, particularly as you go through the first parts of fall. So, hopefully they can cash in a little bit on some rain out there.
But, for Central Texas, most of Hill Country, and then heading toward East Texas and the Houston area, it just doesn’t look like we’re going to see a whole heck of a lot of rain over the next couple of weeks. So, what you see is what you get for the most part.
