Gas power leapfrogs wind for first time in 10 years in Texas’ grid connection queue

From The Texas Tribune:

Brandon Mulder is a journalism fellow at the University of Texas Energy Institute.

A decade ago, wind power was surging in popularity and attracting huge investments that made Texas a national leader in renewable energy. But today, gas generation is making a big comeback, driven by a wave of data centers flooding into the state.

For the last six months, the volume of gas generation in the Texas grid’s interconnection queue — the yearslong waiting list for electric generators wanting to connect to the grid — has surpassed wind. It’s the first time since January 2016 that gas has overtaken wind in the queue, a shift that reflects the policy and economic headwinds facing the wind industry and data centers favoring gas power as they seek to cash in on the artificial intelligence boom.

“The data center explosion and their desire for 24/7 power probably excited a lot of gas developers, and that gas queue got bigger,” said University of Texas professor of energy regulation David Spence.

Like every power grid operator in the U.S., the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, uses the interconnection queue to manage and plan for new power generation coming online. But not all projects in the queue ultimately reach completion. According to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, or LBNL, only 22% of projects in ERCOT’s queue actually get built, which is still the highest percentage of any grid in the nation.

Still, the queue gives an early indication of how the grid is projected to evolve in the future. Solar and battery projects dominate, accounting for 75% of the 458,000 megawatts in the queue, with gas and wind projects making up the rest.

But over the last three years, the volume of gas projects in the queue has jumped by more than 400%, from 12,500 megawatts in March 2023 to nearly 64,000 megawatts as of last month, according to ERCOT data. Meanwhile, wind projects have grown at a much slower clip, increasing by 87% from 25,700 to 48,000 megawatts over the same period.

The gas queue is getting a boost from the Texas Energy Fund, a program passed by the Legislature in 2023 that provides low-interest loans to developers of so-called dispatchable power that can easily be ramped up or down according to grid demand, such as gas-fired power plants.

About 9,000 megawatts worth of projects in the queue are getting loans from the TEF, a large portion of which are “near-term gas projects we expect to come online,” an ERCOT spokesperson said.

But the strongest driving force behind the gas ramp-up is the long list of companies looking to build data centers in Texas.

ERCOT data shows around 360,000 megawatts of power demand tied to prospective data center projects — a volume that would by itself more than quadruple the grid’s record peak demand of 85,500 megawatts set in August 2023.

If anything close to that number actually gets built, ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas told a Senate committee earlier this month, “then we’re going to clearly need a lot more of [gas] generation in order to have a balanced and reliable grid.”

ERCOT’s gas embrace

Vegas sees the growth of gas projects on the queue as a welcome trend. For too long, he said, ERCOT’s energy market hasn’t been attracting dispatchable energy generation like gas plants.

It’s a symptom of how the market was designed 25 years ago, when the Texas Legislature passed sweeping reforms that deregulated the market. Restructuring in 1999 created a competitive wholesale and retail power market and introduced a renewable energy requirement.

That incentivized bringing cheap electricity to the grid, Vegas said, and it kick-started renewable energy development that boomed through the late 2000s and early 2010s.

But Vegas said the new market design failed to value the different strengths of power sources, and those differences matter for grid reliability.

Renewables provide cheap, clean electricity but are only intermittently available when the sun is shining and wind is blowing. Battery power — which pulls electricity from the grid during off-peak hours then sends it back to the grid during peak hours — can be dispatched when needed, but it has duration limitations.

Thermal generators like gas and coal don’t have similar limits as long as the fuel is available to run them.

“We’ve seen this explosion of wind and solar, and now batteries, to the complete exclusion of growth in the natural gas system, because economically we’re not valuing the characteristics of gas generation that is so important for long-term reliability,” Vegas said. “We need to change that somewhere in the market design to recognize the reliability characteristics of the generating source.

But bringing gas-fired power onto the grid faces its own hurdles. For the last several years, the supply chain for gas turbines — the engines that power plants use to generate electricity — has seen a major bottleneck caused in large part by surging demand from data centers outstripping manufacturing capacity. According to Wood Mackenzie, an energy research and consulting firm, orders for a turbine today may take until 2031 to arrive.

However, data centers and gas power developers are finding creative ways around this problem, including repurposing turbines originally designed for aircraft or cruise ships, according to a recent report from the energy data company Cleanview.

In El Paso, for instance, the city’s electric utility is planning to build a gas plant using a novel design that will tie together 813 small gas generators, which are typically used as backup power units at hospitals or manufacturing facilities, to produce 366 megawatts for a data center being built by Meta. And in Mississippi, Elon Musk’s AI company xAI purchased and revived a dormant power plant last year to power a data center that helps train xAI’s chatbot Grok.

“The perceived economic loss of not getting your data center up and running in a year is valued in the billions of dollars,” said University of Texas grid researcher Joshua Rhodes. “That will drive people to very out-of-the-box solutions for these types of things.”

Wind’s slowdown

On the other side of the equation is wind’s shrinking market share. Since its peak in 2018, when wind composed around 50% of the megawatts in the interconnection queue, wind has now fallen behind every other major generation source.

The headwinds facing wind today are multifold, experts say, and extend beyond the recent cuts to tax credits for renewable projects.

Wind’s primary challenge stems from its earlier success. After two decades of immense growth across the state, all of the prime development locations have been taken. Parcels across West Texas and the coastal region — where winds are strong, land is accessible, and transmission lines are available to send the electricity to the grid — have mostly been developed already.

“Texas has a lot of land, but the low-hanging fruit has been picked over by all the wind development that has happened there,” said Joseph Rand, an energy markets researcher at LBNL.

And because the West Texas and coastal regions have become saturated, the existing transmission lines have grown congested, forcing generators to curtail their power output — which cuts into their profits.

To solve that issue, ERCOT is advancing plans to update its transmission system again, which will include three major 765 kilovolt lines capable of carrying more electricity than any existing line in Texas.

“If I were a wind developer, I might not want to build today and face that curtailment risk for the first few years of my project’s lifespan,” Rand said.

Wind’s challenges also stem from solar’s soaring success in Texas. While technology costs for wind and solar have both fallen over the last two decades, the cost of solar energy has fallen more rapidly, from around $160 per megawatt-hour in 2010 to around $70 in 2024, LBNL data shows.

“Because the cost of building a solar farm has gone down so dramatically over the last five to six years, it just becomes a better business decision to build solar and, increasingly, solar plus [battery] storage,” said Judd Messer, Texas vice president of the clean energy trade association Advanced Power Alliance.

Lastly, the wind industry faces policy uncertainty that has made it difficult for wind projects to attract financing. Trump administration policies that have slowed or paused federal approvals necessary for wind projects to reach completion have caused investors to shy away from the industry.

In Texas, which created a grid designed to avoid federal regulation by operating almost entirely within state lines, the federal government can still hamper renewables via the Federal Aviation Administration’s 200-foot rule, which requires construction permits for all structures over 200 feet tall, such as onshore wind turbines.

Last summer, for instance, the U.S. Department of Transportation announced that the FAA “will thoroughly evaluate proposed wind turbines to ensure they do not pose a danger to aviation,” indicating that the routine permit may become a hurdle for onshore wind.

“This kind of arbitrary executive-level uncertainty is really spooking people,” said Messer.

Disclosure: Advanced Power Alliance has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.