From The Texas Newsroom:
A new, statewide poll of registered voters in Texas shows a slight uptick in support for Democrats following last month’s Democratic National Convention.
The poll by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin also shows a double-digit surge in enthusiasm among Democrats following President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw his candidacy.
Among voters surveyed, former President Donald Trump still leads over Vice President Kamala Harris 49% to 44% in a head-to-head match-up for the presidency. Green Party candidate Jill Stein garnered 2% support and 6% of those asked said they were still undecided.
The poll was conducted from August 23 through August 31 following the party convention in Chicago and has a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.
August 2024 University Of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll
Harris’ five-point deficit is a slight improvement from where Democrats stood in June when Biden was still the party’s presumptive nominee. A Texas Politics Project poll conducted that month showed Biden trailing Trump 46% to 39%.
The poll also showed that nearly 80% of Democrats were enthusiastic about casting a ballot in the November election: 52% were “extremely” enthusiastic and 27% were “very” enthusiastic.
“These results represent an increase in both the degree and the intensity compared to the June UT/Texas Politics Project Poll, when 61% were enthusiastic (39% extremely enthusiastic, 22% very enthusiastic),” wrote pollsters James Henson and Joshua Blank. They also note that enthusiasm on the GOP side has waned slightly.
“Republican enthusiasm decreased slightly in both degree and intensity, from 77% either extremely (55%) or very enthusiastic (22%) in June to 49% extremely enthusiastic and 24% very enthusiastic in the latest survey,” they noted.
Harris’ favorability in Texas also saw an upswing in the days after the convention. A poll released in late July showed that, as of June this year, 43% of Texas registered voters surveyed held a “very unfavorable” view of Harris, while 8% had a “somewhat unfavorable” view. That was compared to only 15% who said they had a “very favorable” view of the vice president and 20% who held a “somewhat favorable” view.
Friday’s survey shows that, in late August, 45% of those asked viewed Harris in a favorable light compared to 46% who viewed her as unfavorable. Among the Texas Democrats surveyed, Harris’ favorability also improved by double digits.
“Among Democrats, she improved from 71% favorable and 14% unfavorable in June to 87% favorable and 5% unfavorable in August amidst clear signs of Democratic voters rallying to her candidacy,” Henson and Blank said.
Trump’s favorability also improved overall from his showing in June. That month, 45% held him in a favorable view, compared to 49% that held an unfavorable view. In the latest survey, the former president’s favorability ratings jumped to 49% while his unfavorable rating dropped to 48%.
“Overall, Trump saw a bump in positive views among Republicans after the failed assassination attempt of the former president, with 88% holding a favorable view of him in August, including 62% holding a very favorable view – both peaks in the time series going back to November of 2015,” the poll noted.
The latest survey should boost Democrats’ spirits in Texas, where a Democrat hasn’t won a statewide race in three decades. The last Democratic President to take the state was former President Jimmy Carter in 1976.
But in the race for one of Texas’ seats in the U.S. Senate, current U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Republican, still enjoys a wide margin of support over challenger Colin Allred, a U.S. Representative from Dallas.
In that race, Cruz is up on Allred eight points, 44% to 36% with 14% undecided. But that result also shows a slight improvement for Allred, who trailed Cruz in June by 11 percentage points.
The last day to register to vote in Texas is Oct. 7; early voting begins Oct. 21.
