Here are primary runoffs to watch as Texas voters pick congressional nominees for November

From The Texas Newsroom:

Two weeks from Tuesday, Texans will decide the winners of more than a dozen primary runoffs for the U.S. House of Representatives, including nine Republican contests and eight Democratic. Several of them essentially decide who will win the seat in November, given that many district boundaries have been drawn to heavily favor one party or the other.

The May 26 primary runoff elections will finalize the ballot choices for the first general election since the Texas Legislature redrew the state’s congressional map. Texas’ mid-decade redistricting – begun last July under pressure from President Donald Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott, with the aim of shifting five Democratic districts to the GOP column – kicked off a multistate wave of redistricting efforts by both Republicans and Democrats that continues to this day.

Here’s a breakdown of some of the more notable U.S. House primary races across Texas. Early voting is scheduled for May 18-22.

Democratic incumbents clash in central Houston

One of the top targets from the start of Texas’ redistricting process was U.S. Rep. Al Green, D-Houston, a 20-plus-year incumbent who has filed multiple articles of impeachment against Trump in both of the latter’s presidential terms. Green currently represents Texas’ 9th Congressional District, long a Democratic stronghold with a largely Black voting base.

Last summer, Republican state lawmakers moved much of that voting base, including Green’s own home, out of the 9th and into the neighboring 18th Congressional District.

The 9th District was redrawn to include rural Liberty County and favor Republicans. Rather than retire, Green opted to run in the Democratic primary for the 18th. His chief opponent in March was newly elected incumbent U.S. Rep. Christian Menefee, D-Houston. In that round of voting, Menefee led Green — but not by enough to win the nomination outright.

Ahead of the runoff, Menefee is benefitting from the multiple campaigns he waged to succeed the late U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner, according to Texas Southern University political scientist Michael O. Adams. Menefee, the former Harris County attorney, is completing Turner’s term after beating Amanda Edwards in a special election that went to a runoff.

“Given the advantage of Menefee in terms of being in campaign mode,” Adams said, “you would have to think that he has an organization at this point, in terms of their fourth effort, [that he] would be able to mobilize voters. However, there can be a negative factor in terms of voter fatigue. He will have to ensure that his voters get out.”

Geographical turnout could make a big difference in deciding the outcome.

“The majority of the district is within Harris County, which as a former countywide official, Christian Menefee, I believe, has the edge within the Harris County portion of the district,” said Renée Cross, senior executive director of the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. “However, there is a relatively significant portion of Congressional District 18 that is in Fort Bend County [part of Green’s current district]. And by those numbers, in Fort Bend County, Al Green has the advantage.”

Age could also play a factor in voters’ decisions. Green will turn 79 in September, while Menefee just turned 38. Green has an advantage in terms of congressional seniority that isn’t easily ignored. But he’s running to represent a district that has seen two septuagenarian representatives die in office in the past two years, leading to long periods when voters had no representation in the U.S. House while critical votes took place.

The late U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who represented the 18th District for nearly 30 years, died in 2024 at age 74.

“I think you see not just in the 18th, but certainly in polling across the country and really results in special elections across the country, you’re seeing voters generally hungry to bring in new representation and new blood,” said Max Moll, a principal at Cornerstone Government Affairs. “I think a lot of that trickles down from some of the issues that were brought up during former President Biden’s presidency and concerns with age.”

Conservatives vie for GOP nods in open Houston seats

The aforementioned TX-9 has undergone a dramatic revision. The once safely Democratic seat centered in southwestern Houston has been shifted to east Harris County and all of neighboring Liberty County, with a voting base that supported Trump for president in 2024 by a wide margin.

It’s having its own congressional runoff, in this case on the Republican side, to determine who’ll be on the ballot in November.

Trump weighed in directly in the primary, endorsing Alex Mealer, who narrowly lost the 2022 election for Harris County judge. That contest gave Mealer, a West Point graduate and Afghan War veteran, a countywide edge in name recognition.

She led a nine-candidate field by receiving 36% of the vote on March 3, setting up her runoff against state Rep. Briscoe Cain, R-Deer Park.

“I’m coming with a unique skill set,” Mealer said, “a strong record of public service from my time in the military, as well as significant private-sector experience from [the] oil and gas industry, and now a small business owner.”

Mealer has emphasized a combination of toughness on border security and attention to kitchen table issues in her campaign.

“The infrastructure is a quality of life choke point as well as for further economic growth, for the high-quality American jobs that everybody wants,” Mealer said, noting that the new TX-9 includes the Port of Houston and the Houston Ship Channel, along with its accompanying industrial base. “But there, you can’t drive down [Texas State Highway] 225 — it’s probably the most important road in all of Texas — and understand why this road has been neglected when it’s a freight corridor. So, making sure that we have strong American jobs is undoubtedly top priority, as well as public safety.”

Mealer has also outraised her Republican runoff opponent by about three to one. But Cain isn’t bothered. He has his own big-name endorsement: Abbott’s.

He also points to his deep roots in the district, which Mealer lacks.

“Runoffs aren’t won with money. They’re won with sweat and shoe leather,” Cain said. “This is where the grassroots candidate comes into play, and that’s exactly what I’ve been for a decade.”

Like Mealer, Cain points to public safety and border security as prime issues, in his case highlighting his legislative record over a decade in the Texas House.

“I was there to, for one example, declare the Mexican cartels as terrorists,” Cain said. “I was a co-sponsor of the bill that stopped our foreign adversaries from purchasing land here, which also means those cartel members can no longer purchase land here. I was part of [the effort that] passed the law that enabled our sheriffs or local police departments to require them to comply with ICE detainers to turn that over.”

All that focus on immigration and border security, however, may not necessarily play as well for Republicans in the general election as it is expected to in the primary runoff. The voting-age population of the new TX-9 is nearly 60% Latino, according to state redistricting planning documents.

Rene Alegria is chief innovation officer of Nueva Network, a digital audio network aimed at Hispanic Americans. Alegria said Republican lawmakers’ expectations that Latinos who backed Trump in 2024 will do so again are colliding with Trump’s immigration policies and stubbornly high food and energy prices.

“The GOP redrew the district line to … capture Latino Republican voters,” Alegria said, “but then they spent 18 months giving those same voters a reason to leave. That gerrymandering only works if the coalition it assumed still exists in November.”

Republicans have fewer reasons to be concerned about Texas’ 38th Congressional District in northwest Harris County. It’s a safe GOP district being vacated by U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Houston, who ran unsuccessfully for the party’s U.S. Senate nomination.

The primary runoff candidates to succeed Hunt are Jon Bonck, a Baptist deacon and mortgage loan officer, and Shelly deZevallos, president of the West Houston Airport. Bonck came within 3 percentage points of winning the nomination outright in March.

“He has the endorsement of President Trump as well, and also, he has a war chest that hovered around $1 million or more,” said Adams of Texas Southern University. “So, I think he’s in a strategic position. He would be the odds-on favorite to win this election.”

Two experienced lawmakers match up in Dallas

District 33 in Dallas is in a runoff on the Democratic side. The area was made deep blue by map drawers during the legislative session by adding in a portion of the nearby blue 32nd Congressional District.

U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson lived in that portion and the move forced her to run for reelection in TX-33, where incumbent U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey decided not to seek reelection because his Fort Worth home was drawn out of the district. In the runoff Johnson is facing her predecessor in TX-32 in former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, whose tenure in the office was longer than hers.

Allred is also from the district, having played football there in high school, eventually making it to the NFL. But Brian Hamel, political science professor at the University of North Texas, says that’s not his biggest claim to fame with voters.

“That comes not from his connection to that district, but from having previously ran a statewide race in 2024,” Hamel said.

That race was against Sen. Ted Cruz. Allred earned more than 5 million votes in that race, but still fell short.

Hamel, however, said the name recognition earned during that race is helping Allred in his attempt to return to the U.S. House.

“What you saw in the primary was the fact that Colin Allred’s name recognition is much higher than hers,” Hamel said.

In the primary, Allred received 44% of the vote, finishing 11 percentage points ahead of Johnson.

While signs point to Allred winning the runoff, Johnson said she has the advantage given the likely turnout. Voters who participate in runoffs tend to be those who are more involved in politics, and even consider themselves to be a part of a party’s base.

“The more information the voter has, the more likely they vote for me. Our polling has been very clear on that,” Johnson said. “When we communicate about our record versus Allred’s record, we earn their vote the vast majority of the time.”

By Allred’s record, Johnson was referring to his votes on immigration issues. In 2024, Allred voted in support of both the No Bailout for Sanctuary Cities Act and the Laken Riley Act.

“You just saw Texas, Greg Abbott, threatened to withhold millions of dollars from Texas cities for refusing to cooperate [with] ICE with sanctuary cities,” Johnson said. “Colin was one of 12 Democrats to vote to allow that to happen.”

In the current political climate, Johnson said she believes Allred’s vote will count against him. Hamel sees it as Allred positioning himself before a statewide race.

“Some of the votes that he took when he was in Congress, but also thinking about, ‘I want to run for statewide in Texas, so I’ve got to take some votes here, right, that are maybe more than where I vote with Republicans on some immigration things,'” Hamel said.

Allred is using his name to spread the news that while Johnson was in office, she bought and sold stock in Palantir, a company that is used by the Trump administration to help locate and deport immigrants without legal status.

Johnson doesn’t deny it. Instead she’s used it to highlight the fact that she’s sold her stock and is a co-sponsor on legislation that would require all congressmen to divest of their stocks when elected to office.

Hamel says outside of those subtle differences, Allred and Johnson are pretty much the same in the eyes of most voters.

“They would vote the same way probably, like, 98% of the time,” Hamel said. “And so for that reason, a lot of what it does come down to is, like, who has greater name recognition?”

Fresh faces face off south of the Panhandle

Texas’ 19th Congressional District, which spans from Lubbock to Abilene, is also in the midst of a runoff. There, pro-Trump Republicans — Tom Sell and Abraham Enriquez — are battling to be the party nominee.

Both frequently show their appreciation for Trump. Hamel of UNT says that admiration’s expected, since they’re both first-time candidates for office.

“People who don’t have backgrounds in politics, they’re still trying to demonstrate that they’re going to be the most pro-Trump,” Hamel said.

Between the two, there isn’t much difference between their ideas on policy. Take immigration, for instance.

Sell wants U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to continue the deportations of “bad hombres, the dangerous illegals, the felons who were able to come across the border,” calling it a noble goal. Enriquez wants the same and said Congress needs to “recodify the border policies that President Trump has enacted.”

In a deep red district like this, Hamel says it’s a winning strategy.

“For most of these, it is a, you know, 60%, 80% Republican seat and so really, if you win the primary, you won the election,” Hamel said.

That’s essentially the case in most seats across the state after the mid-decade redistricting. That increases the level of importance for each of the more than a dozen runoffs across the state, because whoever wins will likely go on to hold the seat after the November election.

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