Trump says the US doesn’t need a trade deal with its neighbors. Farm groups push hard for renewal

From Harvest Public Media:

American pork, Mexican avocados and Canadian canola are among the many agricultural products that can move across North America without tariffs under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

But six years after the massive trade agreement went into effect, many farmers are worried the markets and certainty it provides could fall apart in the coming months.

The three trading partners will decide whether to renew the USMCA for another 16 years, let it expire in 2036 or begin an annual review process starting in 2027, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

While some groups, like the United Automobile Workers union, have criticized the USMCA, nearly 160 agricultural and food organizations from the U.S., Canada and Mexico have urged the three countries to “renew and strengthen” the agreement.

That includes the nonprofit Farmers for Free Trade. Chairman of the organization’s board, Bob Hemesath, moderated a roundtable event earlier this month at the World Pork Expo in Des Moines.

“At a time when global competition is intensifying and market access is more critical than ever, the USMCA agreement remains a cornerstone of North America agriculture, trade and just economic impact overall,” Hemesath said.

Mexico, the largest export market for U.S. agricultural products since 2024, was the top buyer of U.S. corn, wheat, pork, dairy and poultry last year, and the second largest buyer of soybeans after China. USDA data show Canada in the top rung for U.S. ethanol, eggs and live animals.

The USMCA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020 and set a mandatory review that officially begins on July 1, 2026.

Trade leaders from Canada and Mexico have expressed their intent to renew the USMCA for another 16 years. But President Donald Trump has said multiple times that he does not support the agreement, which he signed during his first term.

“We do better without an agreement,” Trump told reporters last week. “I would rather leave it unsigned. I would rather have it terminated.”

Separate from the formal review process, the trading partners can withdraw from the agreement at any time with six months notice. It’s unclear whether Trump would be able to do this legally without a vote from Congress, according to the Brookings Institute.

Chad Hart, an Iowa State University Extension economist and professor, said he’s waiting for the Trump administration to state its position on the trade agreement and share publicly if it wants specific changes. But he wasn’t surprised by Trump’s rhetoric.

“He’s done this several times where he’s basically saying, ‘I don’t need a deal, we’re better off without it,’” he said. “But in the end, he ends up striking a deal.”

Hart added that more than three decades of North America trade agreements has led to a multinational agriculture system that would be hard to break apart.

“Products move fairly freely across both U.S. northern and southern borders to truly create an integrated North American market,” Hart said.

For example, the U.S. imports feeder pigs from Canada to fatten up and then sends pork back north.

Maria Zieba, vice president of government affairs with the National Pork Producers Council, said USMCA also includes regulations for animal health.

“Foreign animal diseases don’t really have borders, so it’s really important to have the same rules and baseline,” Zieba said.

The U.S. transitioned from a net importer of pork to a net exporter under NAFTA, Zieba added. Last year, Mexico and Canada bought U.S. pork products worth $2.85 billion and nearly $759 million, respectively.

“A third of our exports go to those two markets,” Zieba said.

Lance Jungmeyer said NAFTA and USMCA have been “a catalyst for variety” during an event organized by the Corn Refiners Association and the Agriculture Coalition for USMCA. Jungmeyer is president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, which represents U.S.-based importers of Mexican produce.

“In 1990, the average grocery store produce department was about 2,000-4,000 square feet. Now it’s 6,500 square feet on average,” Jungmeyer said. “I think a huge impact and result of the USMCA and previously NAFTA trade agreement is this incredible growth and variety and availability, which does help consumers quite a bit.”

Jungmeyer mentioned the historic freezes in Florida this winter, which caused significant damage to U.S. citrus, strawberries and other crops.

“Without the benefit of a trade agreement with tariff-free trade, the supply naturally drops, and we don’t have the resiliency that we need to have a great food supply,” Jungmeyer said.

Between 2020 and 2024, Mexico provided around one third of the horticultural products imported into the U.S., including fruit, vegetables and alcoholic beverages. Top products from Canada included processed foods, meat and vegetable oils.

In a study funded by the Corn Refiners Association, researchers from Purdue found tariff reductions from NAFTA and USMCA have lowered consumer costs.

Joseph Balagtas, director of the Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability at Purdue University, said it “amounts to a savings of about $700 a year today” per household during the press event.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies laid out six possible outcomes for the USMCA. Under the most likely pathway, no deal will be reached this year, prompting the U.S., Mexico and Canada to begin annual reviews.

This story was produced in partnership with Harvest Public Media, a collaboration of public media newsrooms in the Midwest and Great Plains. It reports on food systems, agriculture and rural issues.