Texas voters have some key decisions to make next November when they head to the ballot box and choose who they want to represent them in the U.S. Senate.
Looking to represent Republicans are incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. For Democrats, the frontrunner right now is former U.S. Congressman Colin Allred but many are speculating that former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke could also enter the race.
A new poll from Texas Southern University looks to shed some light on how voters are feeling.
Michael Adams is professor of political science and founding director of the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University. He joined the Texas Standard to discuss their findings.
This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity:
Texas Standard: Well, let’s start with the Republicans here because we mentioned Paxton is in the lead – not leading Sen. Cornyn quite as much as before, though. Can you break that down for us?
Michael Adams: Yes, our new poll, it reveals I think a fascinating dynamic in the upcoming 2026 Senate primaries on both sides.
First with the Republicans, I think we’re beginning to see a surprisingly competitive Republican race where Attorney General Ken Paxton holds just a narrow five-point lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. And you have to remember, we were out in the field with a poll we released back in May. It showed a 9 or 10 percentage lead on the part of Ken Paxton. So that has shrunk significantly, and I think that’s very important.
And by the numbers and a head-to-head matchup, if the election were held today, Paxton would be up 44% to Cornyn 39%, with 17% of our people we polled were undecided.
What do you think contributes to Cornyn gaining some ground here on Paxton?
First of all, I think certainly this represents a significant tightening and I think what Cornyn has done, he has had a kind of rehabilitation campaign over the summer.
One could also suggest that there’s a looming civil war. There’s already a civil war within the Republican Party and Paxton’s base is Christian conservative, more geared towards MAGA – advocates and supporters of President Trump.
And what we’ve seen over the summer is Cornyn began to try to change that narrative. He spent a lot of money in terms of some of the advertisements, in terms of saying that he supported President Trump and these things. And I think that is working to his advantage.
Well, on the Democratic side, Beto O’Rourke has yet to say if he’s running. How far ahead is he from the nearest other Democrat, someone who has thrown their hat into the ring, former Congressman Colin Allred?
Our poll revealed that if O’Rourke were to enter the race, he would have a 20% advantage. Now that’s significant. And we know that Allred, he jumped out early. And I think if he had not entered that race, he probably would have given this second thoughts, given the fact that O’Rourke, Beto, is up by 20 points. And that’s really significant.
And it also may signal to two other candidates that we had in our poll, [State Rep. James] Talarico and also [U.S. Rep. Joaquin] Castro. And certainly they don’t have the name recognition of Allred or neither O’Rourke. But if you disaggregate it, if you break it down, Allred will fare much better against those two candidates.
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I was blown away by the favorability. You polled Democrats on how much they like each of these candidates, and Colin Allred had great favorability, higher than Republicans for President Trump even, or Gov. Greg Abbott. But then you look at Beto O’Rourke’s number and what was it, like, 94% favorability?
Yes. And these two candidates, again, they’re well-known, both Allred and O’Rourke. And if you have to look at the demographic breakdown, women, they are really supportive of O’Rourke, and that’s significant. And also young voters in that demographic and Latina voters, they are solidly behind O’Rourke if he were to make a run.
Well, the redistricting issue’s, of course, been a big political issue here in Texas. It’s had ripple effects in other states. Do you think this argument could have a big impact on the upcoming primaries and then the midterms? It seems like it already has.
I think the main effect of redistricting will be in the Democratic Party primary, where it has increased demand among Democratic primary voters for someone who aggressively fights against Trump and Texas Republicans. And that’s where Beto comes in, and I think this benefits him more than Allred.
I wouldn’t expect it to have much of an impact in the GOP primary, when everyone is at least publicly on the same page in terms of support.
