Democrats see an opening in deep-red West Texas thanks to Talarico

From KACU:

The Cook Political Report rates the race a “toss up,” while recent polling by Texas Public Opinion Research gives Talarico a six-point lead over Paxton.

But Democrats are also seeing potential opportunities farther west, in a region that has been a reliably Republican voting bloc since the 1990s.

In a typical November election, Republican candidates can expect to receive 70% to 80% of the vote in much of West Texas. Some years, local party leaders struggle to find a Democrat willing to challenge Republican candidates for congressional or statehouse seats.

This year, however, Democrats are fielding candidates in all the major races — and there are signs of new energy.

That energy was visible last month outside the Mesquite Event Center in Abilene, where nearly 1,000 people waited in the August heat to see Talarico campaign for the U.S. Senate.

Among them was Noah, who asked that only his first name be used. He said Talarico could appeal to voters across traditional party lines.

“Both sides can lean bipartisan for this guy and he has good policies that support conservative beliefs as well. So it’s a good blend.”

Talarico told the crowd that he sees the country’s political divide differently.

“The real fight in this country is not left vs. right. It’s top vs. bottom. That has always been the real fight in this country.”

His speech focused heavily on the economy and the broad outlines of his “New American Dream” plan, which addresses issues including education and artificial intelligence.

AI is a particularly prominent issue in Abilene, where a boom in data centers is affecting everything from utilities to water use.

Earlier in the day, Talarico held a roundtable with local residents and Democratic leaders to discuss concerns surrounding artificial intelligence. At the rally, he argued that billionaires should not be the ones setting the rules for the technology’s future.

“Working people deserve to get a say and a share in this AI future. We can start by cracking down on these data centers across the state that are jacking up our utility bills … and using up all the water.”

Throughout the campaign, Talarico has criticized Paxton for accepting nearly $500,000 from the AI sector. Paxton has countered by pointing to contributions from Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn co-founder and supporter of data centers, who has given millions of dollars to a political action committee that has supported Talarico among others.

The Abilene rally was notable not only because of the crowd, but because statewide candidates rarely campaign in West Texas — Republican or Democrat.

Liz Hadlestad and her friends drove about 90 minutes from Brownwood to attend.

Hadelstad said she knows Talarico from their time together at the University of Texas.

“I am actually a friend of Jimmy’s from college. We went to UT together. He is the real deal. Everything I see on social media is just like I remember him from college. So I really believe in him and his message.”

She also said she appreciates the way Talarico incorporates his Christian faith into his campaign.

“I hear and see people excited, especially people who are from the Christian faith that think he really is representing the right values.”

That emphasis can carry particular significance in Abilene, a city sometimes called the “Buckle of the Bible Belt.” The city is home to three Christian universities and more than 200 churches.

Some Republicans were also in the crowd, including one person who ran in the Republican primary in March. He declined an interview but said he was frustrated with the current direction of his party and is “rooting” for Talarico in November.

Talarico says he welcomes Republicans who find common ground with his campaign.

“We’re not going to agree on everything. But we are going to agree on the big stuff: taking on the national debt and getting some fiscal responsibility back into our government, securing our border, protecting our good-paying oil and gas jobs across the state, funding public education, building better infrastructure and supporting small businesses so they can thrive and our economy can grow.”

Paul Fabrizio, a McMurry University professor emeritus of political science, says Talarico’s emphasis on affordability and data centers reflects the issues he believes are most important to many voters.

“What he is doing in this campaign and what he spoke about when he was here in Abilene was affordability, and about the data centers. He is going where the voters mostly are.”
But Fabrizio says Talarico is unlikely to win over West Texans whose voting decisions are driven primarily by social issues.

Ryan Goodwin, chairman of the Taylor County Republican Party, agrees.

Goodwin said voters frequently raise Talarico’s positions on religion and transgender issues when he talks with them at church or in the grocery store.

“There’s a video that became viral that Talarico said we don’t need to teach our children Christian faith in schools, that the Bible is not a historical document.“

Goodwin, a former Methodist minister, also said voters have asked him about Talarico’s past comments concerning transgender children.

At the same time, Goodwin said Paxton’s personal scandals have also become a topic of conversation.

“He hasn’t made it easy on us for door knocking.”

Goodwin said he encourages Republicans to focus on the candidates’ policies and the Republican Party platform when deciding how to vote.

“I know a lot of people right now are struggling with Paxton because he had an affair.”
But, he said, voters ultimately have to decide which candidate they believe will better represent their priorities.

“I don’t look at it as either candidate is perfect. But I look at it [as] which one aligns more?”
For decades, that alignment has been something Republicans in West Texas could largely take for granted.

Paxton has not yet made a campaign stop in Abilene, although local Republican officials such as Goodwin hope he will visit in October to energize voters.

“In Taylor County we’re really red. I think what I’m more concerned about is just people sitting this one out.”

While some independent voters, and even some West Texas Republicans, appear willing to consider Talarico, Fabrizio does not expect the region to suddenly turn blue.

“I don’t think anybody is expecting that West Texas is going to turn out miraculously for James Talarico, and all of the sudden is going to be democratic.”

Still, Talarico’s more than $50 million fundraising advantage gives his campaign the ability to continue putting its message in front of voters.

Fabrizio said the question for Democrats is whether that investment can increase their share of the vote in traditionally Republican parts of the state.

“Because of his name recognition, because of all the money that’s been spent in this campaign, can he get more people out? So instead of getting the usual 20% for a Democrat, can he raise it to 30%, to 35%? That, if he can do out in West Texas, could make a huge difference in the overall state totals.”

That possible increase, Fabrizio said, may just be a lofty-enough goal for Talarico in West Texas.