Trump picks Paxton over Cornyn in Texas’ GOP Senate primary runoff as early voting is underway

From Houston Public Media:

With one week to go before Election Day and early voting already underway, President Donald Trump has made a long-awaited endorsement in Texas’ Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate.

Trump on Tuesday backed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is challenging incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in what has been described as a “bitter” campaign.

“I know Ken well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a WINNER!” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

The endorsement has the potential to sway voters in what has been an extremely close contest so far.

According to a poll conducted by Slingshot Strategies on behalf of Texas Public Opinion Research last month, a Trump endorsement of Paxton would widen the attorney general’s lead over Cornyn to an overwhelming 55% to 35%, while a Trump endorsement of Cornyn would still leave the incumbent senator trailing Paxton by 45% to 42%.

“It ends any question of who’s going to win the primary in Texas,” said Bill Miller, an Austin-based political consultant. “The question really then is what is Cornyn going to do? Does he pull his hands down and accept defeat, or is he going to fight it? But the writing’s on the wall. It’s over and that’s that.”

In a statement Tuesday, Paxton welcomed the endorsement and praised the president.

“No one has fought harder for the American people than President Trump, and I look forward to championing his America First agenda in the Senate,” Paxton said. “I have consistently stood by President Trump, even when the Washington establishment and career politicians like John Cornyn turned their back on the President. Now, I look forward to winning this critical Senate seat and delivering victory after victory for the people of Texas.”

The announcement caps months of uncertainty. Trump had teased his intention to endorse a candidate in the election repeatedly, starting soon after Cornyn and Paxton emerged as the remaining contenders from the first round of the primary in March.

As recently as last Friday, Trump told a press gaggle aboard Air Force One that he might soon weigh in, attacking Austin state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, as “weird.”

A poll released this week by Texas Southern University‘s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center indicated that, in hypothetical general election matchups in November, Paxton and Cornyn are both in statistical dead heats against Talarico.

“As I said on primary night, it doesn’t matter who wins this runoff,” Talarico said in a statement Tuesday. “We already know who we’re running against: the billionaire mega-donors and their corrupt political system.”

Cornyn edged out Paxton in the first round of the primary in March, but he failed to garner more than 50% of the vote, the threshold for avoiding a runoff. That was in part due to a spoiler campaign by Houston-area U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who placed third. Hunt himself endorsed Paxton in a post on X not long after Trump’s endorsement

“I think that Ken Paxton probably showed polling to the president and said, ‘I’m going to win this race. These negative ads that are being run against me by John Cornyn are only going to hurt me in the fall. So, if you’re going to endorse you should endorse now because it says that you’re for me and I’m going to win anyway,’ ” Miller said.

Attack ads in the Republican Senate contest have reached a fever pitch over the past few weeks. Commercials for Cornyn have highlighted Paxton’s alleged corruption in office — for which he was impeached but not convicted — as well as his marital infidelity and ongoing divorce from state Sen. Angela Paxton, R-McKinney, as evidence he is not worthy of the party’s nomination.

“I have worked closely with President Trump through both of his Presidential terms and voted with him more than 99% of the time,” Cornyn wrote in a Tuesday post on X. “He has consistently called me a friend in this race. It is now time for Texas Republican voters to decide if they want a strong nominee to help our GOP candidates down ballot and defeat Talarico in November, or a weak nominee who jeopardizes everything we care about. I trust the Republican voters of Texas.”

But Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said Trump’s endorsement “rebuts the Cornyn campaign’s argument that Paxton is a net liability for Texas Republicans in November, because clearly the president doesn’t agree with that.”

Commercials for Paxton have accused Cornyn of lackluster support for Trump, weakness on border security and immigration, and fostering ties with groups promoting “radical Islamic terror,” despite Cornyn’s promoting legislation to crack down on Muslim immigration.

Jones said even with Trump’s endorsement, the bitterness between the Cornyn and Paxton camps could linger for months, potentially making it difficult for the party to unite behind the primary runoff winner as he takes on Talarico in the fall.

“With this decision by Trump to endorse Cornyn, he’s going to alienate a significant number of Texas Republicans, who now are going to have less incentive and desire to support his candidates in the fall,” Jones said. “And this is a real boon for Democrat James Talarico because the dissension and conflict within the Republican Party are likely going to remain stronger now that Paxton is the Trump-endorsed nominee.”

Early voting in the primary runoff began Monday and continues through Friday. Election Day is next Tuesday, May 26.

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