Texans across the state are headed to the polls once again to finalize party nominees for the November ballot.
All eyes are on the highly watched GOP Senate contest, but there are also other key races worth watching
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said he is watching five main things on election day — starting, of course, with that Senate runoff.
1. Paxton v. Cornyn
This race has gained quite a bit of attention, in part because it’s the most expensive primary in U.S. history, Jones said.
“We’re over $150 million by now on TV ads alone, and President Trump’s weighed in. It’s also a race that queues things up for the November election,” Jones said.
“Democrats believe that if Ken Paxton, the deeply flawed GOP candidate with more political dirty laundry — or personal, financial, legal dirty laundry — than pretty much anyone, if he’s the nominee, Democrats think they have a realistic probability or possibility of winning in Texas, and that could be the first Democratic victory statewide since 1994.”
If the Democratic nominee, James Talarico, wins, it could also play a role in tipping the Senate to the Democratic Party for their final two years of Donald Trump’s tenure in office.
Jones said with Trump’s endorsement, Paxton has a good chance at victory.
“If we have exceptionally high turnout on Election Day by people who support John Cornyn at a rate much higher than those who support Ken Paxton, in theory, Cornyn could win,” he said. “I think right now, we’re looking at a Paxton victory and it probably will be at least by the mid-to-high single digits.”
2 and 3. Attorney general
With Ken Paxton making a run for Senate, the Texas Attorney General’s Office is vacant, and there is a primary on both sides of the aisle.
On the Democratic side, Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson of Dallas is facing former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski. Both are pitching a vision for the office that differs from Paxton’s approach.
On the Republican side, Republican State Sen. Mays Middleton and U.S. Rep Chip Roy are running to replace Paxton.
“Middleton was trailing Roy throughout the fall, but used much of his vast personal fortune to leapfrog Roy in the actual March primary and came into this runoff as the favorite,” Jones said. “Roy, however, has received over $5 million from West Texas almost-billionaire Alex Fairly, and that’s helped him narrow the gap.”
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4. U.S. House 18th District
This district has been represented by notable politicians like Sheila Jackson Lee, Barbara Jordan, and Mickey Leland.
Candidates Al Green and Christian Menefee are both sitting members of Congress who are running in the same district in part because of the redistricted map that passed last year.
“Green arrived more than 20 years ago, Menefee arrived a couple months ago. They’re going neck and neck,” Jones said. “What we find is that an overwhelming majority of Democratic primary voters in District 18 like both of these candidates, can only send one of them back.”
Jones said this race will come down to turnout — and turnout in Houston in the Democratic primary has been quite low.
“This means that whoever, between the two candidates, can get their supporters to actually turn out and cast a ballot will be the one that will win,” he said.
5. U.S. House 33rd District
The Democratic primary in the 33rd House District is unique because incumbent Julie Johnson is running against her predecessor, Colin Allred.
Jones said this is another race that will come down to turnout.
“Allred did well in the first round because, in part, Jasmine Crockett was mobilizing African American turnout at record levels,” he said. “That’s not there in this primary runoff. I think Allred has a small advantage, but that’s another one where it’s really going to boil down to turnout.”
